By Thom Henninger
Matt Holliday is returning to the National League, as the St. Louis Cardinals have reportedly traded three prospects, including highly regarded third baseman Brett Wallace, for the veteran outfielder.
Early reports are speculating that Holliday will move into the cleanup spot in St. Louis, and one suggested the newest Cardinal will provide Albert Pujols the best lineup protection he’s had since arriving in St. Louis.
Sure, Holliday is a .315 career hitter and delivered more than 30 homers and 100 RBIs in both 2006 and 2007. And yes, he’s hitting .338 and slugging .574 with 14 RBIs in 18 July contests — perhaps a sign of better things to come — but it’s not likely he’ll deliver the kind of numbers he generated in his best years in Denver.
Although Holliday may benefit from a return to the National League, and show some renewed spark by jumping into a pennant race, it’s worth noting that the former Rockie isn’t returning to Denver.
Like many of his former teammates, Holliday was a far more productive hitter at Coors Field than on the road. In light of his road performance in his five seasons with Colorado, Holliday’s performance in Oakland is about what the Cardinals — or any team looking to sign him long-term after the season — can expect.
Matt Holliday, Oakland Numbers vs. 2004-08 Road Numbers
(HR & RBIs are averages per 162 games)
| Hit Percentages | HR | RBIs | |
| With Oak 2009 | .286/.378/.454 | 19 | 94 |
| On Road 2004-08 | .280/.348/.455 | 21 | 84 |
That’s not to say Holliday won’t provide run production in St. Louis, but expectations should be realistic. It’s conceivable the right-handed hitter will have a solid second half in his new surroundings, but it’s at least as likely that the Cardinals overpaid for Holliday — and another team will do it again over the winter.
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Wallace might have a pretty good upside in a few years. I doubt that Holliday will generate a sufficient return for this deal to make sense long-term.
I’m with Walter on this one. I think the Cardinals gave up a lot in this deal. Clay Mortensen was a supplemental first-rounder just two years ago, and Shane Peterson was a second-round pick last year. If it had just been Wallace for Holliday, the A’s still look good in the long run. If either of the other two become regular contributors in Oakland this one could be almost as painful for the Cards as the Dan Haren trade.
This should be a wakeup call for former top prospect Daric Barton. who is getting more playing time with Jason Giambi injured, but has yet to solve major league pitching. I suspect Wallace, who struggles defensively, is destined for first base–a position that wasn’t open in St. Louis. It shouldn’t be long before he’s manning first base for the A’s.
It can be argued that the Cards may have given up too much for Holliday, but the fact remains: they made a bold move to put them in a position to win the division. Granted, Wallace is a super prospect, but in St Louis, he was without a position. Holliday is a proven .300 hitter with power. He appears to be ecstatic to be back in the NL. At least for the remainder of this season, he will play for one of the better teams in a division with power-hitter paradise parks. Add in his familiarity with NL pitchers to the fact he will be in lineup protected by fellow studs Pujols and Ludwick, I can’t think of a better situation; okay, maybe a return to Colorado, but that was not going to happen. Your move, Hendry/Wade/Melvin.
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