By James Bailey
It’s no coincidence that the first three players taken in the draft this year remain unsigned as we tick down to tonight’s midnight Eastern deadline. They’re all represented by Scott Boras, after all, which made the previous two months a waste of time. No one ever expected them to sign in June. As if they’d actually be eager to get their professional careers underway.
Boras, on this busiest of days, must split his attention between Stephen Strasburg, Dustin Ackley, and Donovan Tate. The best known of the three is Strasburg, the No. 1 overall pick out of San Diego State that many claim is a once-in-a-generation college pitcher. Ackley, the No. 2 pick out of North Carolina, is negotiating with the Mariners, who some expect will need to cough up Mark Teixeira money ($9.5 million from the Rangers in 2001). Tate was selected third overall by the Padres. He is the only high school player of the trio, giving him the most realistic leverage, though Strasburg and Ackley could theoretically return to college for their senior seasons or sign with an independent league.
The Nationals won’t state exactly what their top offer to Strasburg is, but it’s said to be higher than the record $10.5 million deal the Cubs gave Mark Prior in 2001. Prior reached the big leagues the following year, going 6-6 as a rookie, prepping for his breakout 18-6 2003 season. Right about then that $10.5 million bonus didn’t look so bad. Unfortunately, Prior would make just 57 starts over the next three seasons due to injuries. He hasn’t pitched in a big league game since 2006.
Even if Strasburg is as good as advertised, there’s no guarantee he’ll stay healthy. So the Nationals are bearing all the risk, first that he won’t be the superstar he’s projected to be, and second that he’ll get hurt.
If Boras expects record-breaking money for his clients, he should offer a money-back guarantee.
If the player becomes a perennial All-Star, which really ought to be the bar considering how great Boras assures us they are, they keep all of their bonus money. If they bomb out, they give most of the bonus back. In between there’s a sliding scale.
Unreasonable? Not nearly so much as an untested player demanding an eight-figure contract before lacing up his spikes for the first time.
Should Boras advise any of his clients to walk away tonight in a difference of opinion over a measly couple million dollars, he’s costing them money in the long run. At least if they’re actually as good as they think they are. If Strasburg or Ackley sign, they’ll likely reach the big leagues by next year, starting their arbitration and free-agency calendars. If they don’t sign, we’ll be talking about them again at next August’s deadline. With superstar players receiving $15 million to $20 million annually, sacrificing a year of your career on “principle” is a costly move.
Some, like Boras, would argue these players would receive quite a bit more on the open market. Perhaps true, but that’s not the situation they are in. Baseball had an open market decades ago and went to the draft system, in part to more equitably spread talent among the teams.
Most years that is circumvented somewhat by agents, um, I mean, “advisors,” scaring clubs off with huge bonus demands. This year, for a change, the top three teams ignored signability issues on draft day and picked Boras men. If Strasburg, Ackley, and Tate sign, they should help three weak teams improve. If they don’t they could help bring about radical change, which may not wind up serving Boras’s best interests in the end.
So get creative, Scott. As the clock ticks down to midnight tonight, break out that money-back guarantee and get these deals done.
{ 3 comments }
I’ve heard some odd comments about Scott Boras, but the idea of a money-back guarantee probably tops them all.
This is an artificial system created by baseball’s owners to serve their interests, and only their interests. It still amazes me that no amateur has ever sued to have it overturned. How can it possibly be legal for thirty possible employers to agree that only one of them can make an offer to a person with whom none of them has any contractual relationship? About 12 years ago we saw how much the draft system depresses the fair market value of talented amateur players, when Bobby Seay and three others were granted complete free agency to sign with the highest bidders.
Thank goodness that amateurs have agents like Scott Boras and others to help them get the best deal they can in this grossly unfair system.
I was being a bit facetious with the money-back guarantee. It would obviously never happen. My point was, the entire risk is borne by the team. Boras would have you believe every client he ever had was worth a record bonus for wherever they were drafted. They don’t all pan out. Some get hurt, some just don’t develop and wash out without reaching the big leagues. They keep the bonus money, though. Is that fair?
Yes; yes it is. That’s why it’s called bonus money–he gets it simply for signing. Scott Boras and Steven Strasburg didn’t invent the concept of a signing bonus. Obviously, it’s Boras’s job to get as much as he possibly can for his clients.
Under the system as the owners have rigged it (it’s not subject to negotiation with the MLBPA, because they only represent major league players, not amateur free agents) the Washington Nationals came to the conclusion that it was worth it to them to pay the amounts specified in the contract in order to obtain Strasburg’s services. No one pointed a gun at their head. They knew when they drafted him in June what his contract demands were, and that Scott Boras was his agent.
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