Tracy’s amazing run no guarantee of ‘10 success

September 30, 2009

By Thom Henninger

Colorado moved closer to a return to the playoffs Tuesday night, defeating Milwaukee in 11 innings to move three games up on Atlanta in the NL wild-card chase. When Chris Iannetta hit a two-run homer off David Weathers, Rockies manager Jim Tracy improved to 71-40 (.640) since replacing Clint Hurdle in late May.

The Rockies haven’t even clinched a playoff spot, nor have they found out if they can recreate the October magic that sparked a run to the World Series in 2007. Still, this writer was wondering if a red-hot run by an in-season managerial replacement means great things the following season.

Since the expansion era began in 1961, Tracy is only the 13th in-season appointment to manage at least 50 games and post a .600 winning percentage. Believe it or not, not all of the first 12 returned for a full season after overseeing a big improvement in performance. Not with the managerial version of musical chairs in the Bronx. In 1978, Bob Lemon took over for Billy Martin and led the team to a 48-20 finish (.706), but he was gone after starting 34-31 in 1979. Martin took over for Yogi Berra 16 games into the 1985 season and directed the team to a 91-54 record (.628). After fighting Yankees pitcher Ed Whitson that September, Martin didn’t return in 1986.

So, 10 of the first 12 returned to his team for a majority of its games the next season. Six of those 10 managers with a .600 winning percentage posted winning records in the followup season, but only one won 90 games. That was Whitey Herzog, who took over the Royals late in the 1975 season and directed them to a 41-25 finish (.621). The Herzog-led Royals were 90-72 in 1976 before losing the ALCS to the New York Yankees. It was the first of three straight seasons that Kansas City fell to New York in the LCS.

The only other playoff team in the group is the 2005 Astros, who were 89-73 and lost the World Series to the Chicago White Sox. Phil Garner took over for Jimy Williams at the 2004 All-Star break and oversaw a 48-26 surge (.649).

Here are the best regular-season records of those 10 managers who returned for a majority of their teams’ games the following season.

Highest Winning Percentage in Second Season by In-Season Replacement, Since 1961
(managed at least 50 games with .600 win pct as in-season replacement)

Manager Team Rec Pct
Whitey Herzog 1976 KC 90-72 .556
Phil Garner 2005 Hou 89-73 .549
Harvey Kuenn 1983 Mil 87-75 .537
Billy Hunter 1978 Tex 86-75 .534
Cito Gaston 1990 Tor 86-76 .531

The group includes Harvey Kuenn, who guided the Brewers to a fifth-place finish in the American League East in his first full season as a manager in 1983. It was as an in-season replacement for the Brewers in 1982 that Kuenn directed the Brewers to a 72-43 finish and the franchise’s first and only trip to the Fall Classic.

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