By Thom Henninger
Roy Halladay, John Lackey, Rich Harden, Brad Penny and Randy Wolf have gone off the market in the last week, leaving the losing teams bidding for their services scrambling for other options.
With all the recent movement, the available starting pitchers are a less attractive lot now. At this point in the offseason, there are just 17 starting candidates who have won at least 20 games over the last three seasons combined. Only five in the group have won as many as 30 games since the start of the 2007 season.
Most Wins by Free-Agent Starting Pitchers, 2007-09
| Free Agent | W-L (ERA) | 2009 Season |
| Jason Marquis | 38-31 (4.37) | 15-13 (4.04) in 33 starts |
| Braden Looper | 38-33 (4.76) | 14-7 (5.22) in 34 starts |
| Jon Garland | 35-34 (4.37) | 11-13 (4.01) in 33 starts |
| Livan Hernandez | 33-34 (5.45) | 9-12 (5.44) in 31 starts |
| Vicente Padilla | 32-24 (4.92) | 12-6 (4.52) in 25 starts |
| Joel Pineiro | 29-24 (4.20) | 15-12 (3.49) in 32 starts |
| Doug Davis | 28-34 (4.22) | 9-14 (4.12) in 34 starts |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 28-15 (4.55) | 1-6 (9.64) (shoulder surgery) |
| Paul Byrd | 27-23 (4.70) | 1-3 (5.82) (unsigned until Aug) |
| Miguel Batista | 27-29 (4.84) | 7-4 (4.04) as reliever |
| Ben Sheets | 25-14 (3.39) | Missed 2009 (elbow surgery) |
| Eric Bedard | 24-12 (3.20) | 5-3 (2.82) (shoulder surgery) |
| Jarrod Washburn | 24-38 (4.25) | 9-9 (3.78) in 28 starts |
| Jose Contreras | 23-36 (5.09) | 6-13 (5.14) in 23 starts |
| Todd Wellemeyer | 23-22 (4.55) | 7-9 (6.08) in 21 starts |
| Randy Johnson | 23-19 (4.17) | 8-6 (4.88) (shoulder injury) |
| John Smoltz | 20-18 (3.87) | 3-8 (6.35) in 15 starts (shoulder) |
Only three pitchers on the list have a sub-4.00 ERA over the last three seasons, though all three — Ben Sheets, Eric Bedard and 42-year-old John Smoltz — have a lengthy history of battling injuries.
Among those on the list, Sheets, Bedard and Chien-Ming Wang are the only three with a .600 winning percentage since the start of the 2007 season. Of course, Wang, like both Sheets and Bedard, missed a majority of the 2009 campaign to injury.
It’s hard to comprehend Jason Marquis looking so attractive, but seeing his numbers next to those of the other free-agent starters will do that. To Marquis’ credit, he’s been a consistent performer, and his 4.37 ERA the last three seasons is very close to the major league mark for this stretch of years. Despite a big dropoff in his performance over the final five weeks of the season, his 2009 stats look pretty good coming out of Colorado. When spring training begins, Marquis is likely to be significantly overpaid for being a major league-average pitcher.
Free agent Braden Looper was 14-7 in 2009, but his 5.22 ERA is one sign of the progress opponents have made against the right-hander since he became a starter in 2007. The hitting percentages of opponents have steadily risen in those three seasons — to .289/.344/.503 last summer. Looper’s 2009 record has more to do with the major league-leading 7.17 runs of support per nine innings he received from his Milwaukee teammates.
Among those free agents who were healthy last season, arguably the most attractive starter still available is Joel Pineiro, who seemed to benefit from working with Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan over his two-plus years in St. Louis. Pineiro is one of only two free-agent starters on the list who was healthy all year and posted a sub-4.00 ERA.
The other is Jarrod Washburn, who split the 2009 season between Seattle and Detroit and pitched poorly down the stretch for the Tigers. The left-hander was 8-6 with a 2.64 ERA for the Mariners before the July 31 trade, and 1-3 (7.33 ERA) after it. Washburn underwent knee surgery following the season. He downplayed the notion that the injury was a factor over the final two months, but it probably was. His 3.78 ERA in 2009 was markedly better than any he has posted since 2005, so even if he’s healthy next year, his ERA may jump back into the fours.
There are a few other free-agent starters who fell short of 20 wins the last three seasons and may look attractive to suitors. One is Brett Myers, who won 19 games over the last three seasons despite being Philadelphia’s closer in 2007 and battling an assortment of injuries last summer. He hasn’t been as effective as a starter since his move to the bullpen.
