By James Bailey
If at first you don’t succeed, head back to the minors for more seasoning. This is a common approach with young pitchers, who are often rushed to the big leagues before their time. A handful of former top prospects opened the season in Triple-A, trying to work their way back to the bigs. The names are no doubt familiar to most fans: Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Clay Buchholz, Homer Bailey, and Luke Hochevar.
Hughes reached the majors at 20, going 5-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 72.2 innings for the Yankees in 2007. The righthander ranked 4th on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list prior to the ’07 season, the last time he was eligible for the list. The Yankees handed him a spot in their rotation last year and after a fair start a fractured rib unraveled his season and he spent more than half of 2008 on the disabled list. He finished his second season at 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA in 34 innings. He opened this year at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and went 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in three start to earn a ticket back to New York. He’s the first of our group to make it back.
Hughes’ teammate Ian Kennedy finished the ’07 season on an even bigger high than did Hughes. The then 22-year-old went 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA in 19 big league innings and looked to be ready for prime time. His ’08 was a huge disappointment, however, as he went 0-4 with an 8.17 ERA in 39.2 innings over several stints, each seemingly worse than the last. He’s 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in 22.2 innings for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, but seems unlikely to get the call any time soon. The Yankees have to think he’s a little shell-shocked on a big league stage after his showing last year.
Buchholz was 23 when the Red Sox summoned him for the first time in 2007. He went 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in 22.2 innings, tossing a no-hitter in his second big league start. The No. 4 prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list the following spring, Buchholz broke camp with the big club. After a solid, if somewhat erratic April, things quickly fell apart. A return to Triple-A seemed to get him back on track, but he struggled again in the majors and was eventually dropped all the way to Double-A. He finished the ’08 season with a 2-9 record and 6.75 ERA in 76 big league innings. This year he’s off to a 1-0, 1.80 start at Triple-A Pawtucket after 20 innings. Boston’s rotation hasn’t been great this year, but even a 6.75 ERA won’t cost Josh Beckett his job. Maybe if Brad Penny (2-1, 7.61) gets hurt or the Sox get tired of watching him struggle a spot will open for Buchholz.
Righthander Homer Bailey was just 21 when he cracked the Reds rotation for the first time in 2007. He showed some upside, going 4-2 with a 5.76 ERA in 45.1 innings, enough to land at No. 9 on BA’s Top 100 list in 2008. After speculation had him making the big league rotation, he opened the year in Triple-A, finally returning to Cincy in June. The results were disappointing. He went 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA in 36.1 innings over eight starts and was dumped back to the minors. This year at Triple-A Louisville Bailey is 3-2 with a 4.61 ERA and has struck out 31 in 27.1 innings. Despite Bronson Arroyo’s struggles (4-2, 7.15 ERA) the Reds have a stable five-man rotation and Bailey will have to wait.
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft by the Royals, Hochevar made his big league debut in September 2007 at age 23. He went 0-1 with a 2.13 ERA in 12.2 innings that month, then made 22 big league starts last year for Kansas City. He was 6-12 with a 5.51 ERA in 129 innings, just bad enough that the Royals made him earn his way back this spring. He didn’t. He wasn’t even the first starter called up when Horacio Ramirez was jettisoned from the rotation last month. That honor went to Brian Bannister. Hochevar is keeping himself on the radar with a 5-0 start and 1.13 ERA through 32 innings. Sidney Ponson may have saved his job for the moment, but Hochevar will get another shot before long.
There are no guarantees the extra time on the farm will get these pitchers back on the right track. Though all have started strong this year, one doesn’t need to look far for similar cases that haven’t panned out. A year ago Indians lefthander Jeremy Sowers would have made such a list. He went 4-3 with a 2.08 ERA in 60.2 Triple-A innings, but his time in Cleveland netted a disappointing 4-9 record and 5.58 ERA. He’s getting another shot tonight after pitching well in Triple-A to start this season. Marlins lefthander Andrew Miller has yet to turn the corner. Rangers righthander Brandon McCarthy is at least healthy and sticking in the big league rotation this year. He’s 3-0 despite a 4.67 ERA. He first came up with the White Sox four years ago at age 22.
Patience was rewarded in other cases. Dustin McGowan was clearly not ready in 2005-06 when the Blue Jays handed him the opportunity. In his third season he went 12-10 with a 4.08 ERA in 27 starts. Gavin Floyd took even longer and required a change of scenery, as did Kyle Davies. Scott Baker broke through in his third season with the Twins.
The odds are not all five of these guys will fulfill the promise they showed as they climbed the ladder the first time, but they’re at least on pace to earn another shot.
