By Thom Henninger
A month ago, with the surprising Kansas City Royals holding down first place in the American League Central and three rivals nipping at their heels, the division looked like a four-team race. Today the Detroit Tigers hold a 3.5-game edge in the AL Central and appear to be the team to beat.
Not so fast. Yes, the Tigers were 17-11 in May and the only AL Central club to post a winning record for the month. If you take away their seven straight wins in the middle of May, however, they have been playing .500 ball.
Still, none of the division’s contenders has fared as well over the last month. The Royals won six in a row at the start of May and followed up with six consecutive losses. They have dropped four straight twice in the last two weeks during a current 2-9 slide. The Twins have swept home series against two first-place clubs in the last three weeks, Detroit and Milwaukee, but they are 6-16 on the road for the season. Winning three in a row and then losing three straight has been a regular routine this spring. The cellar-dwelling Cleveland Indians have posted four-game losing streaks twice in May and have lost three of their last four. They have won more than two games in a row only once all season.
Detroit Tigers (28-21)
The Tigers are averaging a robust 5.22 runs per game. Even with Carlos Guillen sidelined with a shoulder injury and Magglio Ordonez failing to show much power this spring, the Tigers are piling on the runs. Picking it up for the Tigers is third baseman Brandon Inge, who is hitting .269-12-33 and slugging .515. The Tigers have three players with double-digit homers and at least 30 RBIs in Miguel Cabrera, Inge and Curtis Granderson, who has been moved out of the leadoff spot and into the middle of the lineup behind Cabrera.
With youngsters Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman playing key roles, the Tigers posted the lowest ERA in the majors in 2006, the year of their surprise run to the World Series. Since then, it’s been mostly downhill for the pitching staff, which ranked 27th in the majors in ERA last season. The Tigers top the AL with a 3.87 mark this spring, as Verlander has returned to form and young hurlers are leading Detroit’s resurgence once again. Right-hander Edwin Jackson, acquired on the cheap from Tampa Bay over the winter, is 5-3 with a 2.30 ERA that ranks second in the AL. After a slow start, stud rookie Rick Porcello hasn’t allowed more than two runs in five straight starts — and has won all five. If the Tigers can get Armando Galarraga straightened out, their division rivals may have trouble keeping up.
Chicago White Sox (25-25)
The only AL Central club currently on a surge is the White Sox, who endured a 3-12 skid and were blanked three times during the first half of May. They are now in the midst of a 10-3 run, having won four series in a row after sweeping the Royals in Kansas City over the weekend. Although the White Sox’s offensive attack has traditionally been a key to the team’s success, it had been soft nearly all spring, averaging less than four runs a game until erupting for 24 hits in a 17-3 romp over the Angels in Anaheim on May 25. Beginning with that scoring explosion, the White Sox have averaged 7.3 runs and 12 hits a game in their last seven contests, which have produced six wins.
The White Sox have relied on a balanced attack during their hot streak, which has allowed them to keep winning despite losing Carlos Quentin to plantar fasciitis a week ago. Still, pitching probably will determine if the Sox are able to stick around in the AL Central race. Ace Mark Buehrle has been the only sure thing most of the spring, as John Danks and Bartolo Colon have been hot and cold, and Jose Contreras and Gavin Floyd have been dreadful — at least until Floyd spun three straight quality starts at the end of May. Rookie left-hander Clayton Richard has picked up the slack and could be a key contributor.
Minnesota Twins (25-27)
The Twins have depended on little-ball skills, good pitching and defensive execution to compete in recent seasons. So, when Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer combined for 28 home runs and 87 RBIs in May, one would expect the Twins to be winning a majority of their games. Despite averaging 5.6 runs per game last month — the second-most in the majors after Tampa Bay (6.13) — the Twins managed to go just 14-16. It didn’t matter that Mauer batted .414 and nearly matched his single-season high for homers with 11 bombs in May.
The young starting staff looked like a reason to pick the Twins to win the AL Central in 2009, but now it seems to be a key reason they won’t compete. Neither of the top two starters, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, has more than two wins or an ERA on the good side of 6.00. They have combined for 13 of Minnesota’s 27 losses. Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey have pitched well and posted a 12-3 record between them, and prospect Anthony Swarzak has surfaced recently to give the team a boost. Yet, this team is going nowhere unless Liriano and Baker find their way. The bullpen has been a key strength when the Twins have won over the last decade, but beyond Joe Nathan, it’s also a major concern.
Kansas City Royals (23-27)
All of the AL Central teams seem to be pretenders flirting with being contenders, and the Royals especially are subject to such speculation as they look to post a winning record for only the second time in 16 seasons. It helps to have the majors’ ERA leader in Zack Greinke, who is 8-1 with a 1.10 mark, but the Royals will need Gil Meche and Kyle Davies to pitch better if contending is in the cards. Meche allowed just five runs combined in his first three starts of the season, but then endured four rough outings in a row and has been inconsistent.
The Royals lost 16 of their final 21 games in May. Closer Joakim Soria went on the disabled list with a shoulder ailment two games into Kansas City’s skid, and the bullpen has posted four blown saves, a 6.17 ERA and .307 opponent batting average since he went down. The pen’s ERA is 9.68 in its last 10 appearances, during which the Royals are 1-9.
The good news is, Soria is expected to rejoin the Royals this week. The same can’t be said, however, for third baseman Alex Gordon and catcher John Buck. The Royals, who are averaging just 4.18 runs a game, second-lowest in the AL to Seattle, are without Gordon until around the All-Star break. They lost Buck to a herniated disk over the weekend.
Cleveland Indians (22-31)
The Indians needed a suspect rotation to emerge in 2009 in order to compete, and it hasn’t happened. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee has a 3.16 ERA despite a rough start, but he’s just 2-6 due to a lack of run support. It only gets worse from there. The only other starter with a sub-5.00 ERA is Aaron Laffey, who landed on the DL 10 days ago with an oblique strain. He is likely to miss a few more weeks. Fausto Carmona, who endured a disappointing, injury-plagued followup a year ago to his 2007 breakout, has been dreadful. He is 2-5 with a 6.60 ERA, 38 walks and 35 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. Offseason pickup Carl Pavano is the only starter with a winning record, but his 5-4 mark is a byproduct of a lot of runs.
The bullpen hasn’t fared well, either. It hasn’t mattered that the Indians have averaged 5.21 runs per game. They, the Twins and the Tigers are among only 10 major league clubs averaging as many as five runs a game, and the Indians easily have the worst record among those 10. If the Indians had any hope of sticking around in a suspect division, it may have gone out the window with Grady Sizemore’s sore throwing elbow. Arthroscopic surgery is a possibility, which could sideline him for up to two months. That decision will be made in the next couple of weeks.
