By James Bailey
It took two months and 19 appearances, but Trevor Hoffman finally proved mortal Sunday, allowing his first run of the season in a 5-4 loss to the White Sox.
Baseball’s all-time saves leader came on in the top of the ninth with the game knotted at 4 and issued a walk and two singles, which was noteworthy in itself as it marked the first time in 2009 the 41-year-old reliever had allowed more than two base runners in an appearance. Heck, it was only the second time he’d walked anyone.
Despite missing the first three weeks of the season due to an oblique strain, Hoffman is on pace for his tenth 40-save season. To put that in some perspective, there are only four men in the history of the game who have topped the 400-save plateau. Hoffman is at 570 and counting. The way he’s pitching it’s certainly conceivable he could come back for another year and make a run at 600.
The key to Hoffman’s longevity is his dedication to training. He’s a notorious runner, who will log countless laps around the field each afternoon as he prepares for the night’s game—and all those yet to come. While Hoffman has been worked gently throughout most of his career, averaging just over an inning per appearance, there’s no doubt his exercise regimen has contributed to his relative good health. Other than the lost season of 2003, he’s never missed significant time due to an arm injury.
After 16 seasons in San Diego, Hoffman took his workout routine up north to Milwaukee, signing a $6 million, one-year deal over the winter. He’s proving to be a bargain, giving the team a boost of confidence that when they hold a late lead, they’ll walk into the clubhouse as winners. If he can help guide them into the playoffs, he’ll boost his own chances of Hall-of-Fame enshrinement.
Hoffman, who began his pro career as a shortstop, has compiled a compelling Cooperstown resume, though he’s certainly not a shoo-in. He’s never captured a major award, though he did finish second in Cy Young voting in 1998 and 2006—the only two years he led his league in saves. He’s also made just 12 postseason appearances over four seasons (1996, 1998, 2005, and 2006).
There are five relief pitchers currently enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Of them, only Dennis Eckersley went in on the first ballot. What set him apart was winning 151 games as a starter before moving to the pen for the A’s in 1987. He also pitched in 28 postseason games, notching 15 saves. And Eckersley won both the AL Cy Young Award and MVP in 1992—which wasn’t even his best season.
Bruce Sutter, who won a Cy Young Award in 1979, waited until his 13th ballot to make Cooperstown. The only pitcher ever enshrined who never made a big league start, his bigger hurdle was pitching just 12 seasons. Hoffman’s got that by five and counting, but he’s yet to catch Sutter in innings (1042.1 IP for Sutter in 661 G; 1007 IP for Hoffman in 949 G).
Lee Smith has proven that a lofty saves total alone won’t get you into the Hall. Smith, who led his league in saves four times, held the career record with 478 saves until Hoffman passed him. While he was frequently good for longer outings early in his career, by his later years he was typically a one-inning guy. Smith also never advanced past the Championship Series, and he wasn’t particularly impressive there, going 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in four games (two in 1984 for the Cubs, two in 1988 for the Red Sox). He has failed to clear 45 percent of the Hall vote in his seven years on the ballot.
One factor out of Hoffman’s control is who he’ll compete with for votes on that HOF ballot. At the rate he’s going, that might be hard to project for a couple more seasons. Should Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine not pitch again in the big leagues, they’ll be up for consideration before Hoffman. Randy Johnson is a certain first-ballot selection five years after he hangs up his scowl. John Smoltz’s comeback with the Red Sox later this month may give us a better idea of when to watch for his election.
Wouldn’t it be interesting to see Mariano Rivera and Hoffman both show up on the same ballot? They’ve both enjoyed tremendous regular-season careers, though Rivera easily outdistances Hoffman when it comes to October. Rivera’s Yankees swept the Padres in Hoffman’s only World Series appearance.
By the time Hoffman is eligible for his first ballot, younger pitchers, like Francisco Rodriguez, may be closing in on his record, even if he puts it seemingly out of reach by breaking the 600 mark. The save category, as a relative newcomer to the stat sheet, has been one of the most volatile over the past two decades. Rodriguez, who broke the single-season record last year with 62, currently has 224 and he’s just 27. Should he stay healthy another 10 years, he could reach 600.
Of course, it’s the rare closer who can stay effective for so long, which is one of Hoffman’s strongest arguments for enshrinement. Only three men have logged ten or more 30 save seasons. Smith had 10. Rivera has 11. And Hoffman is at 13 and counting.
That consistency may be enough, even without the postseason heroics and the awards, to put him in the Hall. Certainly nothing is guaranteed on that score at this point. But with every age-defying outing, he’s strengthening his case.
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Hoffman has a huge leg up on Smith in terms of the place in the game that the save occupied during their careers. Over the last couple of decades of increased bullpen specialization, the save has become a much more important stat than it used to be, and considering the year-to-year volatility of relief pitchers in general and closers in particular (Brad Lidge is a great example of that), Hoffman’s consistency has been nothing short of remarkable. I think Lee Smith should be in the Hall of Fame (along with being the poster child for why you have 15 years of eligibility–what he did is more impressive now than it was when he first became eligible) but I firmly believe Trevor Hoffman will get the call when his time comes.
That being said, his record will certainly be broken, likely by the 27 year old K-rod. On his 27th birthday, K-rod had 208 saves. At that same age, Hoffman had 25 saves to his name, and Rivera just 5. Barring catastrophic injury, he could go well past 600
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