Do pickoff throws really control running game?

By Chuck Miller

Other than possibly making a game go longer, do pickoff throws really affect the running game? I was covering the Dodgers/White Sox game June 24 and Mark Loretta took off from first base on five consecutive second-inning full-count pitches with James Loney at the plate. Each time, Loney fouled off the pitch. Finally, after the fifth time, White Sox starter Gavin Floyd threw to first base. Loretta ran again on the next pitch of the at-bat, but Loney finally worked a walk on the 12th pitch of the plate appearance. Should Floyd have been paying more attention to Loretta? Do pickoff throws prevent runners from attempting stolen bases?

Below is the list of most pickoff throws made by a single pitcher this year:

Most Total Pickoff Throws, MLB 2009 – thru games of 6/23

It would appear that both the Marlins and Yankees preach keeping runners close since four of the top five pitchers hurl for one of those two clubs. Not only do the guys above throw a large number of pickoffs, they also throw a high percentage of them compared to the number of pitches they throw. All four Yankees and Marlins also appear on the top five in Highest percentage of pickoff throws below:

Highest Pct. of Pickoff Throws (to Pitches Thrown), MLB 2009
(min 1000 pitches thrown in 2009)

Pittsburgh’s Jeff Karstens edged out Doug Davis on this list. So, how do the two Yankees and Marlins stack up on the single-game list of pickoffs this season? Glad you asked:

Most Pickoff Throws in a Single Game, MLB 2009 – thru games of 6/23

A.J. Burnett’s outing on April 30 against the Angels marks the lone time so far this season where a pitcher has thrown to a base 20 or more times. Did his high number of pickoffs work? The host Yankees fell behind 3-2 after 3.5 innings in which the Angels stole a base in the first, second and fourth innings. Plating two runs in the bottom of the fourth gave the Yankees a short-lived lead. The Angels began the fifth with a double and single to tie the game at four. Chone Figgins was caught stealing after his RBI single and the Angels would score no more on this date. Mike Napoli was also caught stealing in the sixth inning. Burnett threw seven innings but wasn’t the pitcher of record in the Yankees’ 7-4 victory.

Another member of the earlier top five lists above shows up twice on the most pickoffs in a game list. Florida’s Josh Johnson has logged a game each at 19 and 17 pickoffs.

On the flip side, is it a bad thing to ignore holding runners by throwing pickoffs? One pitcher has yet to throw his first pickoff this season. Colorado’s Jason Marquis has thrown 1422 pitches this year without once throwing to first. He has allowed nine of 10 base stealers to find success on the basepaths. However, the next two pitchers on the list of lowest percentage of pickoff throws both play for the Tampa Bay Rays. Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine in a combined 165.2 innings (through June 23) have only had five baserunners even try to steal a base on them. One could argue it’s due to Dioner Navarro sitting behind the plate. But, he is currently sitting in the middle of the American League ranked seventh in the AL in catcher’s caught stealing percentage at 22.7.

Lowest Pct. of Pickoff Throws (to Pitches Thrown), MLB 2009
(min 1000 pitches thrown in 2009)

After looking at the above numbers, I don’t know that a case could be made for these guys throwing more or less pickoffs, but it’s interesting nonetheless to see which pitchers are easiest and hardest to run on:

Highest SB Pct. Against, MLB 2009
(minimum 1 IP per team game)

Lowest SB Pct. Against, MLB 2009
(minimum 1 IP per team game)

Tagged as: pitchers